Summary of vulnerability analysis report and database

One of the aims of HOLiFOOD is to develop artificial intelligence (AI)-powered tools for emerging risk identification in food production. As input for such a tool, it is imperative to have data on drivers related to climate change and green policies driving the emergence of hazards within the food supply chain. Drivers have thus been identified following a two-pronged research approach, I) looking prospectively into food safety issues that might be brought about by climate change and green, environmental policies, and II) retrospectively into the commonalities amongst past food safety incidents.

The prospective research was performed to assess the effects of changes by the European Green Deal and climate change on emerging food risks. Very little information regarding the European Green Deal and its possible effects on food safety risks was obtained. Climate change and its possible effect on food safety risks, however, has been described in multiple articles and reviews. A list of drivers and corresponding effects and indicators were extracted from all relevant literature. Furthermore, due to the high degree of complexity caused by related drivers and effects, all relations were visualised in a flow scheme.

As regards the food safety incidents, a widely varying range of incidents occurred, stretching a wide range of geographies and time periods. Yet, several commonalities could be found amongst the incidents reported, as far as related to causes and drivers. Generally, there are contamination and adulteration events that resulted in the contamination of food products. Examples include the purposeful or accidental substitution of ingredients with cheaper, contaminated ones, mingling of grain with co-harvested toxic seeds, and the infestation of harvested or stored produce with mycotoxin-producing fungi.

After careful consideration of the drivers, a selection of the list of drivers was prepared as input for a mini-Delphi survey amongst invited food safety experts. This ultimately resulted in a list of 14 prioritised drivers related to climate change, economics and the green deal. Amongst these drivers, increasing temperatures and rainfall scored the highest, which could eventually give rise to growth of moulds on crops and harvest, and the formation of mycotoxins by these moulds. The prioritized drivers will be used in other work packages, such as to further explore related indicators and data sources that can be used to monitor for changes in these indicators.

The data can serve as input for the development of the earlier described AI-tools, allowing emerging risk identification in food production.